Hammarby FF 3-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Kalmar FF travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2020, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 4D 1L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 59% versus Kalmar FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 59% | Kalmar FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and Kalmar FF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.936 / defence 0.926 | Kalmar FF attack 0.762 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.352. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Hammarby FF games / 17 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 46% | Draw 29% | Kalmar FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Kalmar FF 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 38% | Kalmar FF 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 46% | Draw 29% | Kalmar FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Hammarby FF 1.37 / Kalmar FF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.936 / def 0.926 | Kalmar FF attack 0.762 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Kalmar FF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 46% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.49
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.33
0.95
Kalmar FF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.95 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 6W 6D 5L from 17 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 10L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.06 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.62 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 38%, Kalmar FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hammarby FF) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 38% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.37 xG and Kalmar FF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Kalmar FF attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 46% | Draw 29% | Kalmar FF 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 59%, Kalmar FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.