Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 8W 0D 2L at 3Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 4, IF Elfsborg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 44% versus IF Elfsborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IF Elfsborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.344 / defence 0.754 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.661 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Hammarby FF games / 59 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 8%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | IF Elfsborg 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG Hammarby FF 2.32 / IF Elfsborg 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.344 / def 0.754 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.661 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.70
IF Elfsborg xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 72% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.15
8%
12.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.02
0.70
IF Elfsborg xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
12.15
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
10%
10.14
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
1%
123.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.70 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 34W 11D 14L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 25W 10D 24L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Elfsborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.24 PPG from 29 outings (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 4D 16L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.64 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 34W 11D 14L in their last 59 games (1.92 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.24 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 45%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hammarby FF) and 55% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hammarby FF's matches and 55% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.32 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.70 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.66 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 19% | IF Elfsborg 8%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IF Elfsborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.