Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hammarby FF face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 15 April 2024 at 19:10 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IF Elfsborg away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.90 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Hammarby FF 1–0 IF Elfsborg — a Hammarby FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | IF Elfsborg 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hammarby FF surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while IF Elfsborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.215 / defence 0.980 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.946 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.438. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 32 games and IF Elfsborg's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.58 | Draw 3.90 | IF Elfsborg 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 90% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Hammarby FF 32 games, IF Elfsborg 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 3 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 19:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.40 / IF Elfsborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.215 / def 0.980 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.946 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 19:10 UK time on Monday 15 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 39% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 32 games and IF Elfsborg's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.90
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.33 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 27W 19D 14L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.67 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 10D 3L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 15W 6D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.90 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Hammarby FF (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won Hammarby FF 3-0 IF Elfsborg.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 7, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Hammarby FF 4-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, IF Elfsborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 50% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 70% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.