Halmstad 0-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Örjans Vall plays host to Halmstad versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.834 / defence 1.015 | Degerfors IF attack 0.899 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.135. Data: 7 Halmstad games / 7 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 41% | Draw 31% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Degerfors IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 41% | Draw 31% | Degerfors IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Halmstad 1.29 / Degerfors IF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.834 / def 1.015 | Degerfors IF attack 0.899 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Degerfors IF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Halmstad 0 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF part of?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 41% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Halmstad and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.83x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.90x) against Halmstad's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
41%
2.47
31%
3.19
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
Degerfors IF xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.04 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
4
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Halmstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 8, as Halmstad and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Degerfors IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 41% | Draw 31% | Degerfors IF 28%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.