GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 1 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 2D 4L at NP3 Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Malmo FF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Malmo FF are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 54% versus Malmo FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 44% | Malmo FF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.933 / defence 1.699 | Malmo FF attack 0.833 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.137. Data: 11 GIF Sundsvall games / 42 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 2.08. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Malmo FF 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.16 / Malmo FF 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.933 / def 1.699 | Malmo FF attack 0.833 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Malmo FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 July 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (0.83x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 11/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
28%
3.62
25%
4.05
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.77
1.61
Malmo FF xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
18.13
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.61 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 8D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.88 PPG from 41 outings (22W 11D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 11W 4D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.81 points per game from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.66 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.76 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.81 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Malmo FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when Malmo FF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 48%, Malmo FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (GIF Sundsvall) and 43% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Malmo FF in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 38% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 43% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Malmo FF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Malmo FF 2-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.61 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 1.70 against Malmo FF attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 11/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 48%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 44%, Malmo FF 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.