Gais 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Gais (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gais face Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Osters IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gais's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Osters IF (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Gais's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Gais 3W, Osters IF 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osters IF — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 48% versus Osters IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Osters IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 2.00 xG and Osters IF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.100 / defence 0.846 | Osters IF attack 0.704 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.398. Osters IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Gais games / 28 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 64% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Osters IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Gais (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | Osters IF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Osters IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 64% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Gais 2.00 / Osters IF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.100 / def 0.846 | Osters IF attack 0.704 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Gais (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Osters IF xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Osters IF kick off?
Gais vs Osters IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Osters IF?
Gais 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Gais vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Osters IF part of?
Gais vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 64% chance of winning, Osters IF a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): Gais 3W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are Gais and Osters IF in?
Gais (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gais's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.70x) against Gais's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.48
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Gais xG
Total xG
2.83
0.83
Osters IF xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
2%
53.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Gais and 0.83 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Osters IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 15D 15L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (21W 16D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Gais against 1.36 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gais's home form reads 17W 7D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 15D 15L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Osters IF away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gais
2
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Osters IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Gais 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Osters IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 45%, Osters IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Gais) and 38% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 31% of games; Osters IF in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Gais's recent matches and 52% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Gais's recent games and 38% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Osters IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, as Gais and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 2.00 xG and Osters IF 0.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gais fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against Osters IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 64% | Draw 22% | Osters IF 14%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Osters IF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.71 PPG, Osters IF 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.