Gais 3-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gais's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalmar FF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gais, 0 for Kalmar FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gais 57% and Kalmar FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 47% | Kalmar FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.76 xG and Kalmar FF 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.972 / defence 0.655 | Kalmar FF attack 0.777 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.345. Gais's defence rating of 0.655 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Gais games / 9 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 62% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 13%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Gais (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gais 50% | Kalmar FF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 62% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Gais 1.76 / Kalmar FF 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.972 / def 0.655 | Kalmar FF attack 0.777 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Gais (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Kalmar FF xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Gais vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Gais 3 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Gais vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Kalmar FF part of?
Gais vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 62% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gais and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Kalmar FF?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Gais and Kalmar FF in?
Gais (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.97) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.78x) against Gais's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 40/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.05
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Gais xG
Total xG
2.45
0.69
Kalmar FF xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
44.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gais and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Gais and 0.69 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais's recent record stands at 14W 10D 6L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 16L across 30 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gais have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 14W 10D 6L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Kalmar FF away?
Gais's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.87 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 3-0 on 30 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
0
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Kalmar FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Kalmar FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gais 3-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Kalmar FF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Gais, 80% for Kalmar FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gais) and 67% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gais's games and 80% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gais's recent games and 67% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Kalmar FF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.76 xG and Kalmar FF 0.69 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.97 / defence 0.66 against Kalmar FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 62% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 13%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 47%, Kalmar FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.