Djurgardens IF 6-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Djurgardens IF welcome Vasteras SK FK to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 3Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.70 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 51% versus Vasteras SK FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 44% | Vasteras SK FK 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.90 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.218 / defence 0.947 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.961 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.334. Data: 43 Djurgardens IF games / 14 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 4.55. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.90 / Vasteras SK FK 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.218 / def 0.947 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.961 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vasteras SK FK xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 August 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Djurgardens IF 6 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 51% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.22) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.61
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.11
1.21
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
3%
30.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.21 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 20W 12D 11L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 25W 9D 9L from 43 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.67 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 2D 7L from 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.95 scored and 1.23 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 25W 9D 9L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2026, when Djurgardens IF won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 62%, Vasteras SK FK 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Djurgardens IF) and 71% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Djurgardens IF's games and 57% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 71% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Vasteras SK FK 6-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.90 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.21 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 22%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 44%, Vasteras SK FK 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.