Djurgardens IF 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 home games — 1.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.50 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 43% versus Mjallby AIF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 57% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.46 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.120 / defence 1.064 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.711 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.305. Data: 14 Djurgardens IF games / 14 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 24%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 4.17. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 57% | Mjallby AIF 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.46 / Mjallby AIF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.120 / def 1.064 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.711 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 47% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.12x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.71x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.40
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.99 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 2D 5L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.36 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.57 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mjallby AIF tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 57%, Mjallby AIF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Djurgardens IF) and 29% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 29% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.46 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 24%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 57%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.64 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.