Djurgardens IF 4-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 31 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at 3Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.60 PPG lead over Mjallby AIF (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 50% versus Mjallby AIF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 48% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.33 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.385 / defence 0.980 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.181 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.351. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Djurgardens IF games / 46 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 25%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Mjallby AIF 4.00. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 50% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.33 / Mjallby AIF 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.385 / def 0.980 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.181 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Mjallby AIF xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 54% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (8 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.39x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.18x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
54%
1.86
21%
4.65
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.89
1.56
Mjallby AIF xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
2%
41.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.56 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 12D 12L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 2.07 PPG from 46 outings (28W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 2.07 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 10W 8D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 2.09 points per game from 23 outings (14W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.76 scored and 0.89 conceded. Djurgardens IF's scoring rate against Mjallby AIF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 11D 7L in their last 46 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.65 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 4-0 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 61%, Mjallby AIF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Djurgardens IF) and 61% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Djurgardens IF's games and 61% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 61% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 4-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.33 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.56 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.39 / defence 0.98 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 54% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 25%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 48%, Mjallby AIF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG, Mjallby AIF 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.