Djurgardens IF 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Djurgardens IF at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Mjallby AIF away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.90 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Djurgardens IF, 2 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended Djurgardens IF 3–1 Mjallby AIF — a Djurgardens IF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus Mjallby AIF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 46% | Mjallby AIF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.26 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.789 / defence 0.899 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.382. Djurgardens IF's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 50 games and Mjallby AIF's last 51.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 41% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.46 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 20% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 22 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 41% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.26 / Mjallby AIF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.789 / def 0.899 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mjallby AIF xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 22) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 41% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 0.79x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.86x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 50 games and Mjallby AIF's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.57
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.32
1.06
Mjallby AIF xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.06 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 7D 16L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 50 outings (23W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.52 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 15W 4D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 25 away games (12W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.28 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 7D 16L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 7D 20L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.96 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 4-0 Mjallby AIF on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 32%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Djurgardens IF) and 48% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 48% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 60% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.26 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.79 / defence 0.90 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 41% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 46%, Mjallby AIF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.76 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.