Djurgardens IF 3-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 4 as Djurgardens IF welcome Malmo FF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 2.00 (Malmo FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Malmo FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 53% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 60% | Malmo FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.32 xG and Malmo FF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.052 / defence 0.823 | Malmo FF attack 1.192 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.110. Data: 33 Djurgardens IF games / 33 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Malmo FF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.32 / Malmo FF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.052 / def 0.823 | Malmo FF attack 1.192 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Malmo FF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 40% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.05x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.31
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Malmo FF xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.09 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 6D 10L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.60 PPG, Malmo FF on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 60%, Malmo FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 67% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Djurgardens IF's games and 67% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 67% of Malmo FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Malmo FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Malmo FF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.32 xG and Malmo FF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.82 against Malmo FF attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 30% | Malmo FF 29%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 60%, Malmo FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, Malmo FF 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.