Djurgardens IF 1-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 April 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Djurgardens IF, 1.40 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, IFK Norrkoping in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Djurgardens IF 53% and IFK Norrkoping 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.068 / defence 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.119 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.048. Data: 31 Djurgardens IF games / 31 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 42% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 27%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Norrkoping 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 42% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.48 / IFK Norrkoping 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.068 / def 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.119 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 42% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.12x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
42%
2.35
30%
3.33
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.64
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.16 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 13W 7D 10L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.53 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 77%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 13W 7D 10L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
0
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 7, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Djurgardens IF, 80% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 73% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Djurgardens IF's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IFK Norrkoping 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.12 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 42% | Draw 30% | IFK Norrkoping 27%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 60%, IFK Norrkoping 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.