Djurgardens IF 4-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host GIF Sundsvall at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Djurgardens IF have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Djurgardens IF, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 5–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus GIF Sundsvall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | GIF Sundsvall 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.93 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.289 / defence 0.817 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.664 / defence 1.553. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.239. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.553 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Djurgardens IF games / 27 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 82% | Draw 13% | GIF Sundsvall 5%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | GIF Sundsvall 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (82%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 40% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 82% | Draw 13% | GIF Sundsvall 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 47% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.93 / GIF Sundsvall 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.289 / def 0.817 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.664 / def 1.553 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.67
GIF Sundsvall xG
47%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 82% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.93. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 4-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
82%
1.22
13%
7.51
5%
20.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
4 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.60
0.67
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.22
82%
Home win
7.51
13%
Draw
20.83
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
5%
18.65
Win to Nil
42%
2.39
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.67 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 32W 12D 13L from 57 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 28L across 57 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 20W 3D 5L from 28 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 6W 6D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.26 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 12D 13L in their last 57 games (1.89 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 10D 28L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.25 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Djurgardens IF 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, GIF Sundsvall 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Djurgardens IF and 50% for GIF Sundsvall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Djurgardens IF's games and 61% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Djurgardens IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat GIF Sundsvall 4-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.93 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.67 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.66 / defence 1.55, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 82% | Draw 13% | GIF Sundsvall 5%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 82%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, GIF Sundsvall 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.