Djurgardens IF 3-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 April 2024 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.30 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Djurgardens IF, 2 for BK Hacken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BK Hacken trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus BK Hacken 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | BK Hacken 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.016 / defence 0.994 | BK Hacken attack 0.963 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.416. Data: 31 Djurgardens IF games / 31 BK Hacken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 40% | BK Hacken 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.47 / BK Hacken 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.016 / def 0.994 | BK Hacken attack 0.963 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
BK Hacken xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 40% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Record (5 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.99
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.36
BK Hacken xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.36 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 11D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 2.02 PPG from 60 outings (36W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.78 PPG, BK Hacken on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 73%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Djurgardens IF and 57% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 67% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 57% of BK Hacken's.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against BK Hacken attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, BK Hacken 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG, BK Hacken 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.