Djurgardens IF 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 50%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tele2 Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 58% versus AIK Stockholm 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 62% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.57 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.282 / defence 1.044 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.671 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.349. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Djurgardens IF games / 26 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 50% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 20%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 5.00. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 50% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.57 / AIK Stockholm 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.282 / def 1.044 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.671 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 50% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.30
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.52
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.94 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 12W 6D 8L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 9W 8D 9L from 26 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 6D 4L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.04 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 8D 9L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.69 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 69%, AIK Stockholm 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Djurgardens IF) and 38% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 38%; AIK Stockholm in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 38% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 38% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.57 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 50% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 20%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 62%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.