Degerfors IF 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stora Valla — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sirius have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Degerfors IF. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sirius (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sirius, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
It is worth noting that Sirius have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sirius — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 52% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | Sirius 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.70 xG and Sirius 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / defence 0.963 | Sirius attack 0.777 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.157. Data: 54 Degerfors IF games / 54 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 55% | Draw 28% | Sirius 17%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Sirius lead the H2H ledger, but Degerfors IF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | Sirius 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 55% | Draw 28% | Sirius 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Degerfors IF 1.70 / Sirius 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / def 0.963 | Sirius attack 0.777 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sirius xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sirius kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Degerfors IF 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sirius part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 55% chance of winning, Sirius a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.78x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.60
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.56
0.87
Sirius xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
31.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.87 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 15W 10D 29L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 25L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.17 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 5W 9D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.15 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 15W 10D 29L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Sirius away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.41 PPG; Sirius away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Sirius have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, Sirius 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Degerfors IF and 63% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 30% of games; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Degerfors IF's games and 56% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Degerfors IF's matches and 63% of Sirius's.
Do Degerfors IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sirius in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and Sirius finished level at 0-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.70 xG and Sirius 0.87 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Sirius attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 55% | Draw 28% | Sirius 17%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, Sirius 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.02 PPG, Sirius 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.