Degerfors IF 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 47%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 3L at Stora Valla — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Sirius have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 0.70 PPG clear of Degerfors IF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 1 for Sirius and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sirius — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 33% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Sirius 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.64 xG and Sirius 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.914 / defence 1.217 | Sirius attack 0.862 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.087. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Degerfors IF games / 48 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 47% | Draw 28% | Sirius 25%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 4.00. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 25% | Sirius 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 47% | Draw 28% | Sirius 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Degerfors IF 1.64 / Sirius 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.914 / def 1.217 | Sirius attack 0.862 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sirius kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sirius part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 47% chance of winning, Sirius a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.86x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.53
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.14
Sirius xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.14 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 5W 3D 10L from 18 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.28 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sirius's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sirius's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Sirius have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Sirius away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.62 PPG; Sirius away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
6
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Sirius have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 25%, Sirius 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Degerfors IF and 75% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 38% of games; Sirius in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 62% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Degerfors IF's matches and 75% of Sirius's.
Do Degerfors IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sirius in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.64 xG and Sirius 1.14 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Sirius attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 47% | Draw 28% | Sirius 25%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Sirius 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.