Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Kalmar FF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kalmar FF have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Kalmar FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.42 xG and Kalmar FF 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.834 / defence 0.946 | Kalmar FF attack 0.632 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.316. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 19 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 51% | Draw 29% | Kalmar FF 20%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Kalmar FF 5.00. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | Kalmar FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 51% | Draw 29% | Kalmar FF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Degerfors IF 1.42 / Kalmar FF 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.834 / def 0.946 | Kalmar FF attack 0.632 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Kalmar FF xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stora Valla.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 51% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 6W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.63x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.41
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.21
0.79
Kalmar FF xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
5%
20.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.79 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 10D 27L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 23W 14D 12L from 49 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kalmar FF are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 0.67 PPG from 24 outings (3W 7D 14L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 10D 8L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.67 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
6
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 42%, Kalmar FF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Degerfors IF) and 38% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF in 38%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games; Kalmar FF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 42% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 38% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.