Degerfors IF 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 46%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Degerfors IF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Degerfors IF have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus IF Brommapojkarna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | IF Brommapojkarna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.22 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.770 / defence 1.164 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.036 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.357. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Degerfors IF games / 39 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 46%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.17. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 30% | IF Brommapojkarna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Degerfors IF 1.22 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.770 / def 1.164 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.036 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.64
IF Brommapojkarna xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF 2 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 28% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (4 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.77) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
28%
3.63
27%
3.77
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.64
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
5%
18.68
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.64 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 16D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (17W 14D 29L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.42 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 6 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and IF Brommapojkarna finished level at 2-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.22 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 28% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 46%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, IF Brommapojkarna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.