Degerfors IF 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stora Valla — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Degerfors IF.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Hammarby FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.68 xG and Hammarby FF 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.479 / defence 1.043 | Hammarby FF attack 1.224 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.385. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.479 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Degerfors IF games / 58 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 62%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 8.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 30% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Degerfors IF 0.68 / Hammarby FF 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.479 / def 1.043 | Hammarby FF attack 1.224 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Hammarby FF xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 12% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 62% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 6W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.48) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
12%
8.11
26%
3.87
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.45
1.77
Hammarby FF xG
8.11
12%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
50%
1.98
Win to Nil
2%
47.52
31%
3.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 15.2 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.77 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 34W 10D 14L across 58 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 14W 5D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.79 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 34W 10D 14L in their last 58 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.28 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 52%, Hammarby FF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Degerfors IF) and 55% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 41%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 28% of games; Hammarby FF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 41% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 55% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.68 xG and Hammarby FF 1.77 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.48 / defence 1.04 against Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 12% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 62%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.