BK Hacken 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to BK Hacken versus Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
BK Hacken (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.10 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — BK Hacken lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2020, ended 2–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.24 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 0.952 / defence 1.337 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.116. Data: 37 BK Hacken games / 37 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 27% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 45%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.22. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 27% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG BK Hacken 1.24 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 0.952 / def 1.337 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.118 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
BK Hacken 3 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 27% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
BK Hacken's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.12x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
27%
3.76
28%
3.58
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.91
1.67
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
5%
19.93
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.67 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BK Hacken's recent record stands at 12W 13D 5L from 30 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.23 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, BK Hacken have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BK Hacken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.07 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.87 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
BK Hacken go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2023, when BK Hacken 2-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 40%, Varbergs BoIS FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (BK Hacken) and 47% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of BK Hacken's recent games and 47% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.24 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 27% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 45%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.63 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.