BK Hacken 0-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 43%, yet in-form IFK Goteborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host IFK Goteborg at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
IFK Goteborg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IFK Goteborg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 60% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 55% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.60 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.319 / defence 1.132 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.025 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.160. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 BK Hacken games / 32 IFK Goteborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 32%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Goteborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Goteborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 50% | IFK Goteborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG BK Hacken 1.60 / IFK Goteborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.319 / def 1.132 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.025 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken 0 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 43% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.32) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.11
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.95
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.35 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken's recent record stands at 21W 22D 17L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 21L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.42 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, BK Hacken have managed 15W 7D 8L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 9W 13D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 21W 22D 17L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IFK Goteborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
1
Draws
3
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, IFK Goteborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 53%, IFK Goteborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (BK Hacken) and 50% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of BK Hacken's games and 57% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat BK Hacken 0-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.60 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.32 / defence 1.13 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 32%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 55%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.42 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.