BK Hacken 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Elfsborg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 55% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 64% | IF Elfsborg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.37 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.172 / defence 1.608 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.922 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.315. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 BK Hacken games / 47 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 27% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 51%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | IF Elfsborg 1.96. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
BK Hacken dominate the H2H record, yet IF Elfsborg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | IF Elfsborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 27% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG BK Hacken 1.37 / IF Elfsborg 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.172 / def 1.608 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.922 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.95
IF Elfsborg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 27% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): BK Hacken 4W | Draws 2 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.17) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
27%
3.70
22%
4.55
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.32
1.95
IF Elfsborg xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
14%
7.02
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
4%
26.01
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.95 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 10D 19L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 23W 8D 16L from 47 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.36 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 4D 11L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Elfsborg's season.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 8D 16L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.39 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 74%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for BK Hacken and 52% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of BK Hacken's games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of BK Hacken's matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.37 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.95 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.61 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 27% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 51%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, IF Elfsborg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.36 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.