BK Hacken 3-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BK Hacken and Hammarby FF meet at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 July 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. BK Hacken have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hammarby FF (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hammarby FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 60% versus Hammarby FF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (BK Hacken 20% | Hammarby FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.18 xG and Hammarby FF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 0.882 / defence 1.015 | Hammarby FF attack 0.928 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.263. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 BK Hacken games / 5 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 36% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 36%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 36% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG BK Hacken 1.18 / Hammarby FF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 0.882 / def 1.015 | Hammarby FF attack 0.928 / def 1.407 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hammarby FF xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken 3 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF part of?
BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 36% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both BK Hacken and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (0.88) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.93x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.59
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Hammarby FF xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.19 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BK Hacken come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 4D 0L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for BK Hacken, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hammarby FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.40 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BK Hacken are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Hammarby FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Early Season
Hammarby FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have BK Hacken or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-0 on 21 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
5
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Hammarby FF?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 60%, Hammarby FF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for BK Hacken and 40% for Hammarby FF.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 40% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of BK Hacken's recent games and 40% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Hammarby FF 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.18 xG and Hammarby FF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Hammarby FF attack 0.93 / defence 1.41, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 36% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 36%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 20%, Hammarby FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.40 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.