BK Hacken 1-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Gais travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 June 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
BK Hacken at Bravida Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gais away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gais — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 0, Gais 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Gais in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 63% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 72% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.31 xG and Gais 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.201 / defence 1.166 | Gais attack 0.983 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.318. Data: 42 BK Hacken games / 42 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 33% | Draw 25% | Gais 42%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Gais 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Gais 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 33% | Draw 25% | Gais 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG BK Hacken 1.31 / Gais 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.201 / def 1.166 | Gais attack 0.983 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Gais (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Gais xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Gais kick off?
BK Hacken vs Gais kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
BK Hacken 1 - 3 Gais.
Where is BK Hacken vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Gais part of?
BK Hacken vs Gais is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 33% chance of winning, Gais a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both BK Hacken and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 2W.
What form are BK Hacken and Gais in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.20x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.99
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.82
1.51
Gais xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.51 for Gais, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 9D 21L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.75 PPG from 60 outings (31W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.65 PPG, Gais on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
BK Hacken's home form reads 20W 3D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded. BK Hacken's scoring rate against Gais's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Gais in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 21L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Gais away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.10 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Gais won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
BK Hacken
1
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 1, Gais have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Gais 0-0 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 77%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for BK Hacken and 57% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of BK Hacken's games and 47% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of BK Hacken's matches and 57% of Gais's.
Do BK Hacken and Gais tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat BK Hacken 1-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.31 xG and Gais 1.51 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gais outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.20 / defence 1.17 against Gais attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 33% | Draw 25% | Gais 42%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.