BK Hacken 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bravida Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 2.40 PPG, Djurgardens IF 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for BK Hacken, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 77% versus Djurgardens IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 64% | Djurgardens IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.50 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.251 / defence 1.183 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.122 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.072. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 BK Hacken games / 45 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 39% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 70% | Djurgardens IF 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 39% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG BK Hacken 1.50 / Djurgardens IF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.251 / def 1.183 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.122 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.25x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.82
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.92
1.42
Djurgardens IF xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.42 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 18W 13D 13L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 25W 9D 10L from 44 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.52 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.75 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Djurgardens IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.62 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
2
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 71%, Djurgardens IF 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (BK Hacken) and 24% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 38%; Djurgardens IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 29% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of BK Hacken's recent games and 24% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.50 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 39% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, Djurgardens IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.52 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.