BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host Degerfors IF at Nordic Wellness Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 4W 4D 2L at Nordic Wellness Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 3, Degerfors IF 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 54% versus Degerfors IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 52% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.67 xG and Degerfors IF 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.002 / defence 1.047 | Degerfors IF attack 0.684 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.299. Data: 54 BK Hacken games / 54 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Degerfors IF 4.76. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 70% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Nordic Wellness Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG BK Hacken 1.67 / Degerfors IF 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.002 / def 1.047 | Degerfors IF attack 0.684 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Nordic Wellness Arena.
Where is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Nordic Wellness Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 55% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both BK Hacken and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
Record (9 meetings): BK Hacken 3W | Draws 3 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.00) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.11
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.60
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
25.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.93 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 17D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.93 PPG from 54 outings (13W 11D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 9W 9D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (9W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 11D 30L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Degerfors IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.33 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.15 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 70%, Degerfors IF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (BK Hacken) and 59% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of BK Hacken's games and 56% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of BK Hacken's matches and 59% of Degerfors IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.