AIK Stockholm 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Degerfors IF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 44% versus Degerfors IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.26 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.113 / defence 0.878 | Degerfors IF attack 0.837 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.179. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 AIK Stockholm games / 52 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 12%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Degerfors IF 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: AIK Stockholm 30% | Degerfors IF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.26 / Degerfors IF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.113 / def 0.878 | Degerfors IF attack 0.837 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 68% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.11x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.14
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.12
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
10%
9.55
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
77.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.86 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 52 games, going 29W 11D 12L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.98 PPG from 52 outings (14W 9D 29L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 20W 5D 1L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.62 points per game from 26 outings (4W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 29W 11D 12L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 9D 29L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Degerfors IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.50 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.62 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 35%, Degerfors IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 46% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.26 xG and Degerfors IF 0.86 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 68% | Draw 19% | Degerfors IF 12%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.