Villarreal 1-2 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Villarreal host Valladolid at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Villarreal at 1.60 PPG versus Valladolid's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Villarreal, 0 for Valladolid and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Villarreal in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 36% versus Valladolid 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 39% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.10 xG and Valladolid 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.023 / defence 0.848 | Valladolid attack 0.643 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.050. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Villarreal games / 28 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 73% | Draw 18% | Valladolid 9%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Valladolid 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Valladolid 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 73% | Draw 18% | Valladolid 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 38% | xG Villarreal 2.10 / Valladolid 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.023 / def 0.848 | Valladolid attack 0.643 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Valladolid xG
38%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valladolid kick off?
Villarreal vs Valladolid kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Villarreal 1 - 2 Valladolid.
Where is Villarreal vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valladolid part of?
Villarreal vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 73% chance of winning, Valladolid a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Villarreal and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Villarreal 1W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Valladolid in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Valladolid (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.02) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.52
9%
11.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.67
0.57
Valladolid xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
11.26
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
56%
1.77
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
41%
2.43
1%
91.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.57 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Villarreal have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 14W 5D 9L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Venue Form
On home soil, Villarreal have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 10L from 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.82 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valladolid away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Valladolid in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Villarreal
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valladolid?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 46%, Valladolid 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Villarreal) and 62% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Valladolid in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Villarreal's recent matches and 31% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Villarreal's recent games and 62% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Valladolid tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Villarreal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Villarreal 1-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.10 xG and Valladolid 0.57 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Valladolid outscored their 0.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Valladolid attack 0.64 / defence 1.51, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 73% | Draw 18% | Valladolid 9%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Valladolid win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 39%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Valladolid's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.