Villarreal 1-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valencia have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.20 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Valencia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 79% and Valencia 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 67% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 3.01 xG and Valencia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.467 / defence 1.116 | Valencia attack 0.791 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.150. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.467 — their λ of 3.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Villarreal games / 61 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 13% | Valencia 10%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.30 | Draw 7.69 | Valencia 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.01 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 77% | Draw 13% | Valencia 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 61% | xG Villarreal 3.01 / Valencia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.467 / def 1.116 | Valencia attack 0.791 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.01
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Valencia xG
61%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 1 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 77% chance of winning, Valencia a 10% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Record (7 meetings): Villarreal 3W | Draws 2 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.01. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 3-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
77%
1.29
13%
7.63
10%
10.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.01
Villarreal xG
Total xG
4.03
1.01
Valencia xG
1.29
77%
Home win
7.63
13%
Draw
10.53
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
5%
20.37
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 3.01 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.01 for Valencia, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 18D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (18W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.52 PPG, Valencia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.77 points per game from 30 outings (5W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 25W 18D 18L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Valencia have gone 18W 17D 26L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.50 PPG; Valencia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Valencia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Villarreal at 80%, Valencia at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Villarreal and 47% for Valencia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valencia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Villarreal's games and 50% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Villarreal's matches and 47% of Valencia's.
Do Villarreal and Valencia tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Valencia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 24, as Villarreal and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 3.01 xG and Valencia 1.01 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Villarreal fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.47 / defence 1.12 against Valencia attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 77% | Draw 13% | Valencia 10%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 67%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.52 PPG, Valencia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.