Valladolid 0-3 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Villarreal at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Villarreal travel to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to take on Valladolid. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Villarreal — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Villarreal haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.11 xG and Villarreal 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Villarreal attack 1.141 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.105. Data: 0 Valladolid games / 38 Villarreal games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valladolid 27% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 44%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Villarreal 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 27% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Valladolid 1.11 / Villarreal 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Villarreal attack 1.141 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Villarreal xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Villarreal kick off?
Valladolid vs Villarreal kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Valladolid 0 - 3 Villarreal.
Where is Valladolid vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Villarreal part of?
Valladolid vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 27% chance of winning, Villarreal a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valladolid and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Villarreal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Villarreal in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Villarreal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valladolid's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
27%
3.65
29%
3.44
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.56
1.45
Villarreal xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
15.56
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.45 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Pre-Season
Villarreal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valladolid and Villarreal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
0
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Villarreal?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Villarreal have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Villarreal 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valladolid 0-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.11 xG and Villarreal 1.45 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Villarreal outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Villarreal attack 1.14 / defence 0.91, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 27% | Draw 29% | Villarreal 44%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.