Valladolid 4-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Valladolid (all games): 2W 2D 5L across 9 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.89 PPG for Valladolid against 1.00 for Celta Vigo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Valladolid have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Celta Vigo in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Valladolid — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 33% versus Celta Vigo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 44% | Celta Vigo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.85 xG and Celta Vigo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.565 / defence 1.072 | Celta Vigo attack 0.737 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.173. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.565 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Valladolid games / 47 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 36%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Celta Vigo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 0% | Celta Vigo 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 31% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Valladolid 0.85 / Celta Vigo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.565 / def 1.072 | Celta Vigo attack 0.737 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Celta Vigo xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Valladolid vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?
Valladolid 4 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Valladolid vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Celta Vigo part of?
Valladolid vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 31% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Valladolid and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Celta Vigo in?
Valladolid (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.56) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.74x) against Valladolid's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
31%
3.19
33%
3.02
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.78
0.93
Celta Vigo xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.7 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.93 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Valladolid against 1.11 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valladolid are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Celta Vigo away?
Valladolid's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.00 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Celta Vigo go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valladolid won 4-1 on 19 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
0
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Valladolid 0-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Valladolid) and 25% (Celta Vigo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Valladolid) and 50% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 75% of games; Celta Vigo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valladolid's recent matches and 25% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valladolid's recent games and 50% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valladolid run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Celta Vigo 4-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.85 xG and Celta Vigo 0.93 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Valladolid beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.56 / defence 1.07 against Celta Vigo attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 31% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 36%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 44%, Celta Vigo 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.89 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.