Valladolid 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 16 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 La Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Valladolid, 0.80 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valladolid 40% | Cadiz 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 60% | Cadiz 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.747 / defence 1.185 | Cadiz attack 0.687 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.220. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Valladolid games / 43 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 39% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 31%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Cadiz 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valladolid are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valladolid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 40% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 39% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Valladolid 1.15 / Cadiz 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.747 / def 1.185 | Cadiz attack 0.687 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cadiz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Cadiz kick off?
Valladolid vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Cadiz?
Valladolid 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Valladolid vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Cadiz part of?
Valladolid vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 39% chance of winning, Cadiz a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valladolid and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Cadiz in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.75) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.69x) against Valladolid's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.39
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
Cadiz xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.99 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valladolid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.00 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cadiz in 0%.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Cadiz?
From 2 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Cadiz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Cadiz 2-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Valladolid) and 0% (Cadiz) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valladolid and 60% for Cadiz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid have failed to score in 40% of games; Cadiz in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Valladolid's recent matches and 0% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valladolid's matches and 60% of Cadiz's.
Do Valladolid and Cadiz tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Valladolid 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Cadiz attack 0.69 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 39% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 31%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cadiz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 60%, Cadiz 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valladolid arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valladolid conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.