Valencia 0-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Valencia have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Valencia, 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Valencia, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Valencia 0–0 Rayo Vallecano — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 45% versus Rayo Vallecano 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Rayo Vallecano 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.42 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.125 / defence 1.073 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.726 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.145. Rayo Vallecano's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Valencia's last 51 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 52.
Result probabilities: Valencia 49% | Draw 28% | Rayo Vallecano 23%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.04 | Draw 3.63 | Rayo Vallecano 4.27. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valencia's last 10 home games and Rayo Vallecano's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valencia 60% (last 10 home games) | Rayo Vallecano 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 49% | Draw 28% | Rayo Vallecano 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Valencia 1.42 / Rayo Vallecano 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.125 / def 1.073 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.726 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Valencia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rayo Vallecano xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valencia 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano is a La Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 49% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Valencia and Rayo Vallecano will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.12x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.73x) against Valencia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 51 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Valencia and 0.89 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 15W 14D 22L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 11W 18D 22L from 51 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Valencia against 1.00 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 25 home games (10W 8D 7L).
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 5W 8D 12L from their last 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.80 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 11W 18D 22L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Valencia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.52 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Valencia or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 14 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 0W 4D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valencia
7
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 1, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2026: Valencia 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Valencia) and 24% (Rayo Vallecano) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Valencia) and 40% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 40%; Valencia have failed to score in 28% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Rayo Vallecano matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valencia's recent matches and 24% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Rayo Vallecano matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Valencia's recent games and 40% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Rayo Vallecano matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Valencia's recent matches and 36% of Rayo Vallecano's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rayo Vallecano defy the odds to beat Valencia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Valencia 0-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.42 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valencia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 49% | Draw 28% | Rayo Vallecano 23%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Rayo Vallecano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Rayo Vallecano 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.16 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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