Valencia 2-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Valencia welcome Elche to Estadio de Mestalla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.20 PPG versus Elche's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Elche trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valencia 69% and Elche 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 56% | Elche 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.67 xG and Elche 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.196 / defence 1.204 | Elche attack 0.755 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.149. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Valencia games / 16 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 26% | Elche 23%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Elche 4.35. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 62% | Elche 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 51% | Draw 26% | Elche 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Valencia 1.67 / Elche 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.196 / def 1.204 | Elche attack 0.755 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Valencia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Elche xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Elche kick off?
Valencia vs Elche kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Elche?
Valencia 2 - 1 Elche.
Where is Valencia vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Elche part of?
Valencia vs Elche is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 51% chance of winning, Elche a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valencia and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Elche in?
Valencia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Elche (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valencia's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Elche's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.72
1.04
Elche xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
23.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valencia and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Valencia and 1.04 for Elche, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 7D 4L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche's form line: 3W 6D 7L from 16 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valencia are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Elche.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L).
On the road, Elche have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valencia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Elche in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Elche have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Elche away?
Valencia's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.62 PPG; Elche away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Valencia or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Elche in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valencia and Elche runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia's record when hosting Elche specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Valencia
2
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Elche have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Elche 1-0 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Elche?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Elche see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 62%, Elche 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valencia) and 38% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Elche in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Elche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Valencia's games and 50% of Elche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valencia's recent games and 38% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Elche tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Elche in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Elche 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Elche 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.67 xG and Elche 1.04 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Elche attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 51% | Draw 26% | Elche 23%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 56%, Elche 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.