Valencia 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valencia at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cadiz (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Valencia, 1.00 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Valencia, 2 for Cadiz and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Valencia 1–2 Cadiz — a Cadiz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 49% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 47% | Cadiz 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.61 xG and Cadiz 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.963 / defence 0.850 | Cadiz attack 0.882 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.201. Data: built from Valencia's last 47 games and Cadiz's last 47.
Result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.89 | Draw 3.73 | Cadiz 4.97. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valencia 50% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Valencia 1.61 / Cadiz 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.963 / def 0.850 | Cadiz attack 0.882 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Valencia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Cadiz kick off?
Valencia vs Cadiz kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 23 October 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Valencia 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Valencia vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Cadiz part of?
Valencia vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 53% chance of winning, Cadiz a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valencia and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Valencia vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valencia's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.88x) against Valencia's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 47 games and Cadiz's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.73
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.51
0.90
Cadiz xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
24.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Valencia and 0.90 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 11D 22L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Cadiz's form line: 12W 15D 20L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Valencia against 1.09 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 5D 8L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 7D 13L from their last 23 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.81 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Cadiz away?
Valencia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.52 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Valencia or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Cadiz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Valencia and Cadiz, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Valencia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won Cadiz 1-4 Valencia on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valencia
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Cadiz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 January 2024: Cadiz 1-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 44%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Valencia) and 30% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cadiz in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valencia's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Valencia's recent games and 30% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Valencia's recent matches and 52% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.61 xG and Cadiz 0.90 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Cadiz attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 47%, Cadiz 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.13 PPG, Cadiz 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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