Valencia 2-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Almeria travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 January 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Almeria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valencia 1.00 PPG, Almeria 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Valencia in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Almeria in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 53% versus Almeria 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 53% | Almeria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.75 xG and Almeria 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.055 / defence 1.022 | Almeria attack 0.754 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.017. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Valencia games / 17 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 60% | Draw 23% | Almeria 16%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Almeria 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 30% | Almeria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 60% | Draw 23% | Almeria 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Valencia 1.75 / Almeria 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.055 / def 1.022 | Almeria attack 0.754 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Valencia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Almeria xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Almeria kick off?
Valencia vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Almeria?
Valencia 2 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Valencia vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Almeria part of?
Valencia vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 60% chance of winning, Almeria a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Valencia and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Almeria in?
Valencia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Almeria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.32
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.53
0.78
Almeria xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
35.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Valencia and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Valencia and 0.78 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 6W 4D 7L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 5W 3D 9L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.29 PPG, Almeria on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.06 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Almeria in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Almeria have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Almeria away?
Valencia's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.25 PPG; Almeria away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valencia
2
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Valencia 2-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 38%, Almeria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Valencia) and 38% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Valencia have failed to score in 38% of games; Almeria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Valencia's recent games and 38% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Almeria tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Almeria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Almeria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Almeria finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.75 xG and Almeria 0.78 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Almeria outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Almeria attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 60% | Draw 23% | Almeria 16%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 53%, Almeria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.29 PPG, Almeria 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.