Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 4W 0D 0L from 4 La Liga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Sevilla) versus 1.80 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Osasuna trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 40% versus Osasuna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 30% | Osasuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.65 xG and Osasuna 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.565 / defence 1.229 | Osasuna attack 1.161 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.079. Sevilla carry an above-average attack strength of 1.565 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Sevilla games / 11 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 39% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Osasuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 50% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 39% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Sevilla 1.65 / Osasuna 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.565 / def 1.229 | Osasuna attack 1.161 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Osasuna xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.77
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.19
1.54
Osasuna xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.54 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 2L across 10 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 2.10 PPG, Osasuna on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Osasuna's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.80 PPG overall record — Osasuna travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 60%.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Osasuna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 3.00 PPG; Osasuna away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Osasuna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 50%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sevilla and 50% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sevilla's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sevilla's matches and 50% of Osasuna's.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Osasuna 2-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.65 xG and Osasuna 1.54 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.56 / defence 1.23 against Osasuna attack 1.16 / defence 1.01, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 39% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 34%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 30%, Osasuna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 2.10 PPG, Osasuna 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.