Sevilla 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sevilla face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sevilla's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sevilla have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sevilla are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Mallorca away from home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sevilla edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2024, ended Sevilla 0–0 Mallorca — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 56% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 47% | Mallorca 34%). Note also that Mallorca surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Sevilla recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.29 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.789 / defence 1.123 | Mallorca attack 0.810 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.153. Sevilla's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from Sevilla's last 62 games and Mallorca's last 62.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 30%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.38 | Draw 3.60 | Mallorca 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 50% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Sevilla 1.29 / Mallorca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.789 / def 1.123 | Mallorca attack 0.810 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Mallorca xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Mallorca kick off?
Sevilla vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 24 February 2025 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Sevilla vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Mallorca part of?
Sevilla vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 42% chance of winning, Mallorca a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sevilla and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Sevilla vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.81x) against Sevilla's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 62 games and Mallorca's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.60
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.34
1.05
Mallorca xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.05 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 18W 18D 26L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 18W 20D 24L from 62 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sevilla against 1.19 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 7W 8D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
Sevilla (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Sevilla vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 games (1.16 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 18W 20D 24L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Mallorca away?
Sevilla's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.37 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 3, Mallorca have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 60%, Mallorca 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sevilla) and 37% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sevilla's recent matches and 47% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sevilla and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sevilla's recent games and 37% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sevilla's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.29 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 42% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 30%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 47%, Mallorca 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.16 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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