Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sevilla face Las Palmas.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sevilla and Las Palmas meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Sevilla (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sevilla have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Las Palmas have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 4 games: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 100% and Las Palmas 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 100% | Las Palmas 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.33 xG and Las Palmas 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.931 / defence 1.178 | Las Palmas attack 0.647 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.162. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Sevilla's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 4.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 47% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 25%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.12 | Draw 3.57 | Las Palmas 4.02. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Las Palmas's last 4 games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sevilla 80% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 25% (last 4 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 5 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 47% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sevilla 1.33 / Las Palmas 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.931 / def 1.178 | Las Palmas attack 0.647 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Las Palmas xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Las Palmas kick off?
Sevilla vs Las Palmas kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Sevilla 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Sevilla vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Las Palmas part of?
Sevilla vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 5) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 47% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sevilla and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sevilla vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.93) and Las Palmas's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.65x) against Sevilla's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 41 games and Las Palmas's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.57
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.22
0.89
Las Palmas xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.89 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Sevilla have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Las Palmas are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sevilla.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Las Palmas in 25%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
Sevilla (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
❓ Sevilla vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
1
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 3, Las Palmas have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2025: Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Las Palmas?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Las Palmas's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 100%, Las Palmas 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Sevilla) and 0% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Las Palmas matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sevilla's games and 25% of Las Palmas's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sevilla and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sevilla's recent games and 0% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sevilla's recent matches and 25% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.33 xG and Las Palmas 0.89 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Las Palmas attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 47% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 25%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 100%, Las Palmas 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Las Palmas's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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