Sevilla 2-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sevilla face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atletico Madrid's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Atletico Madrid have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Sevilla's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atletico Madrid have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 57% versus Atletico Madrid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 47% | Atletico Madrid 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.08 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.765 / defence 1.167 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.990 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.125. Sevilla's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Sevilla games / 68 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 31% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 42%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Madrid 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 40% | Atletico Madrid 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 31% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sevilla 1.08 / Atletico Madrid 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.765 / def 1.167 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.990 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Atletico Madrid xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla 2 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 31% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sevilla and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
Record (8 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Madrid 6W.
What form are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (0.99x) against Sevilla's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.62
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.38
1.30
Atletico Madrid xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.30 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sevilla come into this having played 68 games, going 18W 18D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.96 PPG from 68 outings (39W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Sevilla — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sevilla's home form reads 10W 10D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.42 points per game from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.74 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 18W 18D 32L in their last 68 games (1.06 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 39W 16D 13L in their last 68 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.21 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 6-1 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 54%, Atletico Madrid 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sevilla) and 36% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sevilla's recent matches and 46% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sevilla's recent games and 36% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.08 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 31% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 42%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 47%, Atletico Madrid 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Sevilla winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.