Sevilla 5-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sevilla at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sevilla face Almeria.

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Analysis & Preview

Almeria travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sevilla stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Sevilla have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Almeria have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sevilla 0.90 PPG, Almeria 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sevilla's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sevilla have won 1, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Sevilla 2–1 Almeria — a Sevilla win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sevilla in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 60% and Almeria 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 51% | Almeria 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.47 xG and Almeria 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.882 / defence 1.045 | Almeria attack 0.976 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.211. Data: built from Sevilla's last 43 games and Almeria's last 44.

Result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 26% | Almeria 32%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.37 | Draw 3.82 | Almeria 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 90% (last 10 away games).

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