Real Sociedad 2-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Real Sociedad take on Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Granada CF travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 4D 2L at Reale Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Real Sociedad are significantly better at Reale Arena than their overall form suggests.
Granada CF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Real Sociedad) versus 1.30 (Granada CF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Real Sociedad, 0 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Real Sociedad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Real Sociedad trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 32% versus Granada CF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 23% | Granada CF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 0.89 xG and Granada CF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.646 / defence 0.962 | Granada CF attack 0.762 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.126. Real Sociedad's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Real Sociedad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Real Sociedad games / 23 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 33% | Draw 38% | Granada CF 29%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Granada CF 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Granada CF's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 20% | Granada CF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 33% | Draw 38% | Granada CF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Real Sociedad 0.89 / Granada CF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.646 / def 0.962 | Granada CF attack 0.762 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Granada CF xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Granada CF kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Granada CF kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Real Sociedad 2 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF part of?
Real Sociedad vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 33% chance of winning, Granada CF a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Real Sociedad and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Real Sociedad 1W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Granada CF in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Granada CF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Real Sociedad's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
38%
2.66
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
1.72
0.82
Granada CF xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 14.8 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.82 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Sociedad come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 8D 5L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Real Sociedad's home form reads 5W 4D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.18 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 64%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Granada CF away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.73 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Granada CF in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Real Sociedad
0
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 4, Granada CF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Real Sociedad 18% BTTS, Granada CF 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Real Sociedad and 36% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 36% of games; Granada CF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 46% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 36% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Granada CF tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Granada CF 2-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 0.89 xG and Granada CF 0.82 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.65 / defence 0.96 against Granada CF attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 33% | Draw 38% | Granada CF 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 23%, Granada CF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Granada CF's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.