Real Sociedad 1-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Sociedad face Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo meet at Reale Arena in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Real Sociedad's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Reale Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Real Sociedad's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Celta Vigo's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Real Sociedad have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Celta Vigo managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
The historical record gives Real Sociedad a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 39% versus Celta Vigo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 34% | Celta Vigo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.52 xG and Celta Vigo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.971 / defence 1.008 | Celta Vigo attack 1.082 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 0.979. Data: 59 Real Sociedad games / 59 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 3.70. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 50% | Celta Vigo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Real Sociedad 1.52 / Celta Vigo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.971 / def 1.008 | Celta Vigo attack 1.082 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.339 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Real Sociedad 1 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo part of?
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 48% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
Record (3 meetings): Real Sociedad 3W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (0.97) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.08x) against Real Sociedad's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.89
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Celta Vigo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.07 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 30W 14D 15L from 59 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 26L across 59 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Celta Vigo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 7D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.10 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Celta Vigo away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.79 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Real Sociedad
3
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Sociedad see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 28% (Real Sociedad) and 31% (Celta Vigo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Real Sociedad and 34% for Celta Vigo.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 38%; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 28% of games; Celta Vigo in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 31% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 34% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.52 xG and Celta Vigo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 34%, Celta Vigo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.