Real Sociedad 0-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo meet at Reale Arena in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Real Sociedad's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Real Sociedad's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Reale Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Real Sociedad are significantly better at Reale Arena than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Celta Vigo have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Celta Vigo arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Real Sociedad, 1 for Celta Vigo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 37% versus Celta Vigo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 41% | Celta Vigo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.32 xG and Celta Vigo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.770 / defence 0.908 | Celta Vigo attack 1.190 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.186. Real Sociedad's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Real Sociedad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Real Sociedad games / 73 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 38% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 36%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Real Sociedad dominate the H2H record, yet Celta Vigo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 20% | Celta Vigo 80%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 38% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Real Sociedad 1.32 / Celta Vigo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.770 / def 0.908 | Celta Vigo attack 1.190 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Celta Vigo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo part of?
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
Record (6 meetings): Real Sociedad 3W | Draws 2 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Sociedad's attack rating (0.77) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.19x) against Real Sociedad's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.79
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.60
1.28
Celta Vigo xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.28 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Sociedad's recent record stands at 28W 19D 26L from 73 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 31L across 73 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Real Sociedad against 1.23 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Real Sociedad have managed 15W 9D 12L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 7W 9D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Celta Vigo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.38 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 63%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 28W 19D 26L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 24W 18D 31L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Celta Vigo away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.50 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Real Sociedad
4
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 36%, Celta Vigo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Real Sociedad) and 69% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 69% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 69% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Real Sociedad 0-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.32 xG and Celta Vigo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Celta Vigo attack 1.19 / defence 1.23, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 38% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 36%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.41 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.