Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Osasuna meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Real Betis against 1.30 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Real Betis, 1 for Osasuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Real Betis — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 50% versus Osasuna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 46% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.966 / defence 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.076 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.195. Real Betis's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Real Betis games / 48 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Osasuna 4.55. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 40% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Real Betis 1.57 / Osasuna 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.966 / def 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.076 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Betis vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Real Betis 2 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Betis vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Osasuna part of?
Real Betis vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 51% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Real Betis and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Real Betis 3W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in?
Real Betis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.97) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.08x) against Real Betis's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.71
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Osasuna xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.94 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 14D 14L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (19W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Real Betis against 1.38 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 11W 7D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Osasuna away?
Real Betis's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.74 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Betis
2
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 7, Osasuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 48%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Real Betis) and 35% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Osasuna in 30%; Real Betis have failed to score in 26% of games; Osasuna in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Real Betis's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Real Betis's recent games and 35% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Osasuna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 2-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.97 / defence 0.73 against Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 46%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.54 PPG, Osasuna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.