Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Real Betis face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Osasuna meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Real Betis's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Real Betis against 1.30 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Real Betis 2–3 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Real Betis — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 50% versus Osasuna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 46% | Osasuna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.966 / defence 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.076 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.195. Real Betis have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Data: built from Real Betis's last 48 games and Osasuna's last 48.
Result probabilities: Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.96 | Draw 3.71 | Osasuna 4.56. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Betis 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Real Betis 1.57 / Osasuna 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.966 / def 0.733 | Osasuna attack 1.076 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Real Betis vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Real Betis vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Betis vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Real Betis 2 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Betis vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Osasuna part of?
Real Betis vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 51% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Real Betis and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Real Betis vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.97) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.08x) against Real Betis's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Real Betis's last 48 games and Osasuna's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.71
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Osasuna xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Real Betis vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.94 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 14D 14L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (19W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Real Betis against 1.38 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 11W 7D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 23 away games (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Real Betis (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Real Betis
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Real Betis vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Osasuna away?
Real Betis's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.74 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 5W 1D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Betis
2
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Real Betis vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Real Betis have won 7, Osasuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 48%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Real Betis) and 35% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Osasuna in 30%; Real Betis have failed to score in 26% of games; Osasuna in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Real Betis vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Real Betis and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Real Betis's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Real Betis and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Real Betis's recent games and 35% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Real Betis's recent matches and 74% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Osasuna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 2-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.97 / defence 0.73 against Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 51% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 22%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 46%, Osasuna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.54 PPG, Osasuna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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