Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2W 7D 1L at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Rayo Vallecano) versus 1.20 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 5 for Osasuna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Osasuna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.751 / defence 0.817 | Osasuna attack 0.650 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.106. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Rayo Vallecano games / 58 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Osasuna 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Osasuna 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.00 / Osasuna 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.751 / def 0.817 | Osasuna attack 0.650 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Osasuna xG
29%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 43% chance of winning, Osasuna a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Record (9 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 3W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 5W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.75x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
43%
2.31
37%
2.72
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.58
0.59
Osasuna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.42
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.5 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.59 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 18W 20D 20L from 58 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 20D 20L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.28 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 8W 14D 6L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 2W 12D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 18W 20D 20L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 18W 20D 20L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Osasuna away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.36 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Osasuna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
6
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Osasuna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 64%, Osasuna 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Rayo Vallecano and 25% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 43% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 25% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 1-3 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.59 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Osasuna attack 0.65 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 20%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.28 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.