Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Vallecas plays host to Rayo Vallecano versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 22 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 5W 1D 0L at Estadio de Vallecas — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Vallecas. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in La Liga this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Rayo Vallecano's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 46% versus Mallorca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 62% | Mallorca 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.88 xG and Mallorca 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.184 / defence 0.845 | Mallorca attack 0.797 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.113. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Rayo Vallecano games / 13 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 63% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 13%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 33% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 63% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.88 / Mallorca 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.184 / def 0.845 | Mallorca attack 0.797 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Mallorca xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Rayo Vallecano 3 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 63% chance of winning, Mallorca a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 1.18x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.80x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.23
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.63
0.75
Mallorca xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
50.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.75 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 6W 2D 5L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 3W 6D 4L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.15 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 6D 4L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Mallorca away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 2.67 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mallorca in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
6
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Mallorca have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 33%, Mallorca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rayo Vallecano) and 33% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Mallorca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 33% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Mallorca 3-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.88 xG and Mallorca 0.75 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against Mallorca attack 0.80 / defence 1.53, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 63% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 13%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 62%, Mallorca 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.54 PPG, Mallorca 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.