Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Estadio de Vallecas: 7W 1D 0L from 8 La Liga appearances (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Vallecas. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alaves have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.20 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Alaves — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 50% | Alaves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.50 xG and Alaves 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.177 / defence 0.823 | Alaves attack 0.804 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.110. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Rayo Vallecano games / 16 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 28% | Alaves 17%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 5.88. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 38% | Alaves 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 28% | Alaves 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.50 / Alaves 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.177 / def 0.823 | Alaves attack 0.804 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Alaves xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 54% chance of winning, Alaves a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (1.18) and Alaves's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.80x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.52
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.23
0.73
Alaves xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
4%
26.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.73 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 3D 5L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.81 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Alaves away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 2.71 PPG; Alaves away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alaves in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rayo Vallecano have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 6, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 43%, Alaves 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rayo Vallecano) and 43% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Alaves in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 43% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 43% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Alaves tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alaves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 2-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.50 xG and Alaves 0.73 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 28% | Alaves 17%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 50%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.